Category:

Economics

No arbitrage play on NUGT and GDX, Direxion funds are a scam, precious metals market manipulation

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares NUGT is a leveraged fund that very basically aims to mimic the movement of VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX at triple the rate.

So, if GDX goes up 5%, then NUGT roughly goes up 15% give or take, minus much higher expenses principally due to interest on the leverage (which is getting smaller by the way with rate cuts… Read more

An uptick in lottery hopefuls: my own economic recession indicator

My gadget and article Expected Value Calculator for Lotto Max and Lotto 6/49 and 3 ways of increasing your chances of winning in Lotto 6/49 and Lotto Max respectively have been two of my most popular articles since their inception, but in the past few months, there has been a surge of new visitors to those posts.

Now, if the jackpots were unusually high I wou… Read more

The Real March Madness is here: yield curve inverts, massively

As of this morning, 10-year treasury yields hit 0.75, down a whopping 20% in a single day and far, far away from the current 1 – 1.25% rate even after the recent Fed rate cut.

There isn’t much room left before it hits negative rates, and all the markets appear to have nowhere to go but down.  Welcome back to 2008, but this time with much bigger bubbles … Read more

A quick review of my technology (FANG+T) market predictions

About four months ago, I made a prediction that Netflix (NFLX) was about to replicate the cryptocurrency curve in terms of valuation, or more appropriately, overvaluation:

My estimate for BTC’s value is close to $0 (but not exactly $0). NFLX on the other hand at least produces something not easily replicable, so while it may not be valued close to $0,

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In the sea of mindless Yahoo! Finance comments, this guy gets it

Cheers Darryl for seeing through the Keynesian facade and the accompanying BS media articles pushing their fallacious theories:

If we were to use the same methodology for calculating inflation that we used in 1980, it would show inflation today to be at 10% rate. We have simply modeled inflation away through the likes of “Hedonics” (my comput

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Debunking Netflix stock price propaganda: Subscriber Growth™!

My Debunking BitCoin Propaganda series of articles during the boom-and-bust period of cryptocurrencies was relatively well-read, mainly because it takes a step back from all the noise and carefully dissects the loud cheers and platitudes crypto pumpers were using to drown out rational thought.

Considering the accurate forecasting of those articles, … Read more

Goldman Sachs sets the Netflix trap

The pump-and-dump is on.

Back when BitCoin and other cryptocurrencies were ascending to unprecedented and irrational highs, I churned out article after article detailing all the analysis from first principles why the real valuation of cryptos is zero, and not $20,000/BTC.

I started writing about the cryptocurrency bubble when BTC was hovering around $… Read more

Netflix jumps quarterly always on subscriber numbers, but never on profitability and sustainability

The pack leader in this debt-driven bubble, Netflix, made another 8% leap today with glowing media reports everywhere noting that subscriber growth beat analyst estimates in the latest earnings report.

If there’s any indicator big enough saying how much risky speculation is fueling this stock market, it is today’s wall-to-wall media co… Read more

Name a period in history …

Name a period in history where exponentially growing national debt was eventually paid off in full, because a nation’s financial growth was so excessive as a result of the theoretical fruits of modern Keynesian economic policy.

We’re still waiting, but don’t expect it to happen anytime soon, or at all.

Meanwhile, the amount of times ma… Read more

Canadian Housing Bubble: Toronto sales down 40% YOY in March

Has a correction arrived and about to reverse course, or is the bubble just now feeling the pressure of the pin?

Let’s translate the numbers that came out from the Toronto Real Estate Board, a report that should be taken with a grain of salt considering the conflict of interest they have in reporting the truth:

TORONTO — Canada’s largest real estate

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